Russian military movements close to Ukraine’s border spotted recently in media are unlikely to be preparations for an imminent large-scale invasion, a U.S.-based think tank reported on Nov. 2.
The Russian activity is still of concern to the region’s nations and NATO, the experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) added.
In its report, the ISW noted that “open-source reporting does not support the assessment that Russia has moved any additional forces closer to the Ukrainian border or that a Russian offensive against Ukraine is imminent.”
The institute’s assessment countered alarming reports in past days including an Oct. 30 article by the Washington Post which quoted U.S. and European officials as saying that renewed Russian military activity on its Western flank once again raised concerns in the West.
Videos have surfaced on social media in recent days showing “Russian military trains and convoys moving large quantities of military hardware, including tanks and missiles, in southern and western Russia,” the newspaper said. According to the report, the near-border buildup resumed following the Russian-Belarusian drills Zapad-2021, which took place in September.
On Nov. 1, U.S.-based news outlet Politico published a number of fresh satellite shots reportedly showing “a buildup of armored units, tanks and self-propelled artillery along with ground troops massing near the Russian town of Yelnya close to the border of Belarus.”
The findings triggered a déjà vu for the acute regional crisis that unfolded in March and April, with over 100,000 Russian troops concentrated at the Ukrainian border, which raised fears of a large-scale invasion.
Read more: After stoking crisis, Kremlin says it will pull troops back from Ukraine borders
But Ukrainian authorities strongly deny any additional Russian military buildup and call such reports in Western media “deliberate disinformation.”
Kyiv’s view was upheld by U.S. General Mark Milley, Chiarman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was on Nov. 3 quoted by Reuters saying significant Russian military movement was occurring along Ukraine’s border but it was not “overtly aggressive.”
“We’ve seen this before… What does this mean? We don’t know yet, too early to tell,” Reuters quoted Milley as saying.
Russia started its war against Ukraine in 2014, first occupying the Crimean Peninsula and then starting military aggression in the eastern region of Donbas through the illegal proxy forces it sponsors. Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion, more than 13,000 people have been killed.
On Nov. 1, Ukraine’s military intelligence denied having detected any additional Russian deployments in the region. The messages spread in the media “are an element of psychological operations and are essentially scheduled activities… following the drills.”
“It is the deliberate disinformation of society,” said Oleksiy Danilov, chief of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. “We don’t know what’s going to happen tomorrow, but the concentration (of troops) they write about is not taking place.”
On Nov. 2, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said nearly 90,000 Russian troops are currently deployed close to the country’s border, as well as in occupied Crimea.
ISW’s experts in their analysis said formations with Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army mentioned by the Washington Post were likely getting back from their temporary positions near the city of Voronezh to their permanent bases in Yelnya, which are suitable for their winter stay.
But it should be noted that the 41st Army is not returning to its home bases in Russia’s Siberia, which “suggests that they will be permanently transferred to the Western Military District and remain on the Ukrainian and/or Belarusian border for a time,” the institute added.
В последние дни в интернете и в СМИ говорят о новой концентрации войск РФ у границы с Украиной. Мы изучили информацию, имеющуюся в открытых источниках, и хотя мы пока не видим весенних масштабов переброски техники, причины для беспокойства все равно есть https://t.co/qTqOLkp3Wc pic.twitter.com/8Zd2BS983H
— CIT (@CITeam_ru) November 2, 2021
ISW’s report also said social media reports which suggested that elements of Russia’s 1st Guards Tank Army were getting deployed close to Ukraine were not accurate.
“The videos likely instead depict the 41st Combined Arms Army redeploying from Voronezh to Yelnya,” the report said.
The new wave of tension unfolded following the Oct. 26 incident in the war zone of Donbas, during which Ukrainian formations briefly entered the no-man’s-land town of Staromariivka in Donetsk Oblast, reportedly with a mission to ensure the security of humanitarian aid provided to local civilians.
The move triggered a fierce reaction from Russian-backed militants. One Ukrainian soldier was killed and two more injured in an artillery strike later in the day. Ukrainian forces responded by targeting the enemy artillery with a Bayraktar TB2 attack drone, the Turkish-produced aerial system’s combat debut in the region.
According to ISW, the Kremlin exploited the incident to advance a false narrative of a potential Ukrainian offensive against occupied Donbas and claimed it will protect “Russian citizens.” Over 600,000 residents of the occupied region have obtained Russian passports under a simplified procedure in recent years, according to Russian authorities.
“This recent series of Russian redeployments and rhetorical escalations is unlikely to be preparation for an imminent Russian offensive against Ukraine,” the ISW report concluded.
The report continued: “It does, however, set conditions for increased pressure on Kyiv and also on Belarus and merits continued close but sober observation… This pattern of increasingly frequent Russian maneuvers and rhetorical escalations will likely continue, and it will be easy for the West to fall into one of two traps — overly alarmist warnings of imminent Russian offensives that are unlikely to occur, or complacency and inattention to Russian actions.”
“The Kremlin likely intends to produce both these effects, allowing it to intimidate Ukraine and NATO and simultaneously establish a new normal of continuous Russian exercises, obscuring dangerous moves. The West should continue to monitor, publicly discuss, and evaluate Russian actions, even if they are not worst-case scenarios,” ISW’s report added.
Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an open-source investigation group, having analyzed scores of photos and videos depicting the Russian military movements in late October, came to a similar conclusion.
For instance, the group confirmed that Russia’s 41st Army units are getting redeployed to Yelnya, which hosts the 59th Tank Regiment that “should operate capabilities to maintain and repair military hardware.” Such a deployment would make sense if the Russian command wants to keep the 41st Army units combat-ready for the duration of the upcoming winter, CIT said.
“Unlike this spring, when we saw a massive, focused movement of troops and personnel towards the border, this time we observe a notably lower level of activity, which could be at least partially explained with planned vehicle movements and/or reinforcement of existing units,” CIT said.
“However, the now indefinitely extended storage of 41st Army vehicles relatively close to the border, as well as the presence of the 4th Tank Division in border areas, are indeed causes for concern,” CIT added.
