Ukraine introduces four COVID-19 threat levels for cities, communities

The Ukrainian government has adopted new rules of the quarantine but has not explained the criteria clearly raising questions from local authorities and citizens. 

The special commission for technogenic and environmental safety will divide communities, rather than entire regions, by green, yellow, orange, and red levels of severity of COVID-19 spread.

The authorities in districts, cities, and towns will have to tighten or relax anti-epidemic measures correspondingly. The levels are based upon four indicators that will be reviewed every five days. 

The new approach comes in response to the growing number of new infections in the country. As of Aug. 1, Ukraine had a little over 30,000 active cases of COVID-19 and recorded over 1,000 new cases per day in the last four days. 

According to the Deputy Health Minister Viktor Lyashko, the percentage of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests coming back positive has slightly increased since July 28 from 7% to 8%. 

Currently, there are three places marked as having the highest, red, level of COVID-19 threat. This means that, according to the new rules, cities of Lutsk and Ternopil as well as Kitsmansky district of Chernivtsi Oblast have to close businesses such as cafes and shopping centers and halt public transport. 

However, Lutsk officials have rebuked calling the decision unclear and ungrounded and saying the shutdown won’t happen. 

Lutsk, a city of 217,000 people in Volyn Oblast, has registered 918 coronavirus cases since the beginning of the outbreak. Volyn Oblast had 956 active cases as of Aug. 1. And it tests more than many other regions. 

“The state commission (with a not-quite-clear legal status) without any particular reason has put Lutsk in the ‘red’ level of epidemiological threat,” Lutsk Deputy Mayor Ihor Polischuk wrote on Facebook on Aug.1. “The real motives of such a decision are unclear since COVID-19 statistics in the city have not changed recently.” 

If the central government wants to force the city authorities to shut down public transport and businesses, it should declare the state of emergency, he added. 

The Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, on the other hand, is one of the leaders of the coronavirus infections. As of Aug. 1, it had 5,227 active cases, the highest number in the country after Lviv Oblast. 

Yet, on the threat level map, Kyiv is marked as low-risk, green. 

Deputy Health Minister Viktor Lyashko gave an unsatisfying reply to journalists at the briefing. “The indicators in Kyiv didn’t exceed the limits for five consecutive days,” he said. 

The criteria for assessing the epidemiological situation in different regions have not changed since they were adopted in June. But now they will be applied to smaller administrative units such as districts, cities, and towns.

There are four of them: bed occupancy in hospitals with COVID-19 patients below 50%; no less than 24 PCR and antibodies tests per 100,000 people on average administered over the past seven days; detection rate of new infections below 11%; growth rate below 10%. 

What raises questions is the obscure math behind the indicators for which a community gets marked as “green” or “red’. The wording of the government decree is too complex, and the health officials have not provided a clear explanation of the criteria so far leaving local authorities confused let alone ordinary residents. 

An interactive map released by the Center for Public Health shows only colored areas without the detailed epidemiological data on testing or detection rates. 

The basic anti-epidemic measures for communities with green level of COVID-19 threat include mandatory mask wearing in public transport and inside public establishments and no more than one person per 5 square meters during mass events. Cinemas must work at half-capacity. 

At the yellow level of threat all basic measures remain in force. In addition, it is banned to visit care facilities for the elderly. 

The orange level tightens restrictions further: accommodation services (hostels, holiday camps, resorts and sanatoriums), except for hotels, as well as gyms, fitness centers, art and culture establishments must close. Planned hospitalizations have to be canceled. Mass events are limited to 100 people and no more than one person per 20 square meters. Restaurants and entertainment establishments may not work after midnight. 

If a community has over 75% of hospital beds occupied with COVID-19 patients, the area gets a red level of threat. 

In addition to the orange level restrictions, the authorities shut down public transport, schools and educational establishments, shopping malls, cafes, and restaurants. 

In total, over 71,000 people contracted the coronavirus in Ukraine since the beginning of the outbreak. Since March, 1,790 people have died and 39,308 have recovered. 

It is projected that Ukraine might have up to 400,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus and 4,000 deaths by the end of this year, Lyashko said. 

“We have to prepare for the fact that the coronavirus will circulate along with other respiratory viruses during the flu season that typically lasts from October until May in Ukraine,” Lyashko said. 

Like many countries around the world, Ukraine has seen a surge in infections after lifting strict restrictions on business and travel in mid-May. While forcing the whole nation into a new lockdown would be practically impossible and would deepen the economic crisis, the government has followed the so-called “adaptive quarantine” depending on how bad the infection rate is in certain regions. Meanwhile, schools are slated to reopen on Sept. 1. 

Ukraine’s COVID-10 threat levels as of Aug. 1, 2020. (Public Health Center of Ukraine)

Red level: Cities of Lutsk and Ternopil, Kitsman district of Chernivtsi Oblast

Orange level: Cities of Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Berezhany town in Ternopil Oblast; Lutsk and Lyubeshivsky districts of Volyn Oblast; Tysmenytsky district of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast; Mykolayiv, Peremyshl, and Pustomist districts of Lviv Oblast; Buchach district of Ternopil Oblast.