The local elections across Ukraine are scheduled for Oct. 25, and the campaigns are gathering momentum. But don’t let the word “local” mislead you into thinking these contests are not as worthy of attention as the parliamentary or presidential elections.
This year’s local elections might be the most high-stakes and competitive in Ukraine’s independent history. The country’s decentralization reform granted local authorities more autonomy from the central government and more tax money to manage as they see fit. Changes to the Election Code increased the role of political parties. And the COVID‑19 pandemic has required adjustments to the way campaigns are conducted and in-person voting is held.
Moreover, October local elections are an opportunity for the opposition on both sides of the spectrum to take advantage of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s declining popularity.
Zelensky stormed politics last year with a historic landslide victory, and his television fame and election promises were strong enough to help Servant of the People, his party of political novices like himself, win the majority seats in the parliament.
Now in his second year in office, Zelensky has been losing popularity, albeit more slowly than his predecessors. The Minsk talks on Russia’s war in the Donbas are deadlocked, prominent reformers left his team, his staffing policy raised questions and the coronavirus lockdown exacerbated the country’s economic crisis.
Notably, disillusionment with Zelensky is growing in the east, which was once very approving of the young Russian-speaking president without an aggressive nationalistic agenda. The lost support goes to pro-Russian parties such as the Opposition Platform — For Life or the party of blogger Anatoliy Shariy, according to the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
As much as the coronavirus pandemic was beyond Zelensky’s control, it plays a huge role in the election race. There has already been discord between the central government, which orders anti-epidemic measures, and the local authorities, who have to implement them. Cities have refused to impose new restrictions, unwilling to anger the voter base, despite a growing number of COVID‑19 cases and hospitals filled with patients.
As the elections approach, the virus risks and the political tensions over the coronavirus response will increase, presenting Zelensky with a double challenge of protecting public health and securing the success of his party.
Servant of the People, too, has lost its luster and became riven by internal rifts. Some members of the 248-member ruling faction have turned against Zelensky and his government. The party has not built a stable regional network.
During his recent official visits to eastern and central Ukrainian regions, Zelensky openly promoted his party and its candidates for local elections.
So who is getting elected in the local elections? Members of oblast (region), rayon (larger district), city and village councils, as well as city mayors and heads of villages.
According to the new Election Code, independent candidates may run only in small towns or villages with populations fewer than 10,000 people. In more populous places, candidates have to be nominated by a political party.
Other novelties are open lists. Parties will have to disclose the names of their candidates, and voters will vote not only for a party, but for a particular candidate on its list. Two out of every five candidates on the party list must be women.
Mayoral elections in cities of over 75,000 people will have two rounds if no candidate wins 50%+1 vote in the first round. In smaller towns and villages, mayors will be elected by the majority of votes.
The changes in the administrative structure of Ukraine reduced the number of rayons, or large districts comprised of several villages and towns, from 490 to 136. Fewer administrative districts mean a smaller number of district councils and their elected members, and therefore higher competition.
The transition to a party system in cities encouraged incumbent mayors seeking reelection to form their own parties in order to maintain influence over local councils.
Among them are Kharkiv Mayor Hennadiy Kernes’s Bloc Successful Kharkiv, Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boichenko’s Bloc; Zaporizhia Mayor Volodymyr Buryak’s ‘Unity’; and a new party, Propozytsiya, led by the mayors of Dnipro. Mykolayiv, Chernivtsi, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytsyi, Kakhovka and Uman.
The races to change the leadership of Kyiv, Odesa and Lviv (Andriy Sadovyi is running again despite saying he wouldn’t) likely won’t bring any surprises, as the sitting mayors lead in the polls.
Established political parties are actively nominating their candidates too. For those that didn’t get into parliament or won fewer seats than they aspired to, local elections are a chance to muster the base before the next parliamentary election.
This October, an estimated 27 million Ukrainians are expected to vote. Former residents of now-occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts have been allowed to vote according to their current residential address.
Follow the Kyiv Post for the coverage of the local elections in Ukraine this fall.
